Kashmir’s climate is undergoing a dramatic transformation, threatening the region’s famed agricultural heritage and the livelihoods of its people. Once celebrated for its lush orchards, snow-fed rivers, and vibrant paddy fields, the valley now faces a slow-moving catastrophe driven by steadily rising temperatures and a significant decline in annual rainfall. Recent scientific studies and firsthand accounts from local farmers paint a sobering picture: annual rainfall in the Kashmir Valley is dropping by about 5 mm each year, while average temperatures are climbing at a rate of 0.02°C annually. This dual trend is not just a matter of numbers—it is reshaping the very fabric of rural life in Kashmir.
Over the past three decades, data from the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) and research institutions such as Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST) have documented a persistent warming trend across the valley. The increase in temperature is most acute in urban floodplains like Srinagar, where the urban heat island effect exacerbates natural warming. A sharp temperature jump was observed around 1996-1997, after which the region entered an era of consistently warmer years. Winters, once harsh and snowy, are now milder and shorter, while spring arrives earlier and brings less precipitation. This shift is not uniform: the plains and mountainous regions are warming faster than the foothills and Karewa plateaus, putting the most agriculturally productive and water-sensitive areas at greatest risk.
The consequences of this warming are visible in the changing rhythms of rural life. Farmers have observed that apple trees and other fruit crops are flowering earlier than ever before, sometimes by several weeks. This premature blossoming exposes crops to late spring frosts, which can devastate yields and reduce fruit quality. Earlier, apple trees would flower in April, but now blossoms appear in late March and a single cold snap can destroy the entire crop. The early onset of warm weather is also affecting oilseeds and other cash crops, leading to shorter growing seasons and unpredictable harvests.
While temperatures rise, the valley’s lifeline—its annual rainfall—is steadily receding. Scientific studies, including a recent paper in Climate Dynamics, confirm a decline of about 5 mm of rainfall per year, with the steepest drops occurring in the mountainous and foothill regions. These areas are crucial for recharging glaciers and maintaining the perennial flow of rivers such as the Jhelum, Chenab and Indus. The reduction in precipitation is especially severe during winter and spring, seasons that are critical for building the snowpack that sustains river flows through the summer. For farmers, the impact is immediate and severe. Traditional paddy cultivation, which relies on abundant water during the summer Kharif season, is becoming increasingly difficult. Irrigation channels that once ran full now run dry before the crops mature, forcing many to leave fields fallow or switch to less water-intensive crops. The erratic nature of rainfall—long dry spells punctuated by sudden, intense downpours—further complicates planning and increases the risk of both drought and flash floods.
The combined effect of rising temperatures and declining rainfall is disrupting the growth cycles of Kashmir’s most important crops. Apples, saffron, walnuts, barley and pulses are all under threat. Early flowering and shortened growing seasons mean that yields are dropping and crop quality is suffering. Saffron, which requires a delicate balance of moisture and temperature, has seen a marked reduction in both acreage and productivity. Walnut and almond growers report increased pest infestations and diseases, which thrive in warmer, drier conditions. Farmers are also noticing changes in the timing and intensity of pest attacks, as warmer winters fail to kill off insects and pathogens. This adds to the cost and effort required to protect crops, further squeezing already thin profit margins. The disruption of traditional agricultural cycles is not just an economic issue—it is a cultural crisis, threatening the valley’s centuries-old farming traditions and the food security of its people.
The decline in winter and spring precipitation is not only affecting agriculture but also endangering the region’s water resources. The glaciers and snowfields of the Himalayas, which feed the valley’s rivers, depend on regular snowfall for replenishment. With less snow and more rain falling as brief, intense storms, the glaciers are shrinking and river flows are becoming more erratic. This threatens not only irrigation but also drinking water supplies, hydropower generation, and the health of aquatic ecosystems. The perennial flow of major rivers like the Jhelum, Chenab and Indus is at risk. These rivers are the arteries of Kashmir’s economy, supporting millions of people across the region. If current trends continue, experts warn that water shortages could become chronic, leading to increased competition and conflict over resources.
The scientific consensus is clear: without immediate and sustained adaptation measures, the future of agriculture in Kashmir is bleak. Experts and local institutions are calling for a multi-pronged approach to build resilience in the face of climate change. Water resource management is at the top of the agenda. Rainwater harvesting, micro-irrigation, and the restoration of traditional water bodies such as ponds and streams can help buffer against dry spells and reduce dependence on erratic rainfall. Reviving wetlands and natural springs is also critical for maintaining groundwater levels. Crop diversification is another key strategy. Farmers are being encouraged to shift from water-intensive crops like rice to more resilient varieties such as millets, pulses and certain vegetables. Research institutions like SKUAST are developing new strains of apples, saffron and rice that can tolerate higher temperatures and require less water. Agroforestry and soil conservation practices can help retain soil moisture, reduce erosion, and provide additional sources of income. Integrating trees and shrubs into farmland not only improves resilience but also enhances biodiversity and carbon sequestration. Early warning systems and farmer training are essential for helping rural communities adapt. Improved weather forecasting, pest and disease alerts, and training in climate-smart agriculture can empower farmers to make informed decisions and reduce losses. Policy support and financial aid from the government are crucial. Crop insurance, subsidies for climate-resilient seeds and investment in rural infrastructure can provide a safety net for farmers facing unprecedented challenges.
Kashmir stands at a pivotal moment. The valley’s legendary beauty and productivity are under threat from forces beyond the control of any single farmer or community. The decline in rainfall and rise in temperature are not distant threats—they are realities unfolding now, with profound consequences for agriculture, water resources, and rural livelihoods. The stories of resilience and adaptation emerging from the valley are inspiring, but they are not enough. Without urgent, coordinated action—from scientists, policymakers and the farming community alike—Kashmir’s fields and orchards may soon become mere memories of a lost paradise. The time to act is now, before the valley’s climate crisis becomes irreversible.
Historical Disasters: Earthquakes, Floods and Climate Extremes
Kashmir’s vulnerability to climate extremes and environmental disasters is not a recent phenomenon; the region’s history is marked by a series of devastating incidents that have left lasting scars on its landscape, agriculture, and society. The current crisis of declining rainfall and rising temperatures is only the latest chapter in a long narrative of environmental upheaval, with each event underscoring the valley’s fragility and the urgent need for adaptation.
The 1885 Kashmir Earthquake stands as one of the most catastrophic events in the valley’s recorded history. On May 30, 1885, a powerful earthquake—estimated at magnitude 6.3 to 6.8—struck near Srinagar, causing widespread devastation. The quake and its aftershocks, which continued for months, killed over 3,000 people, destroyed an estimated 75,000 huts, and wiped-out entire villages through landslides and liquefaction. The towns of Baramulla and Sopore were particularly hard-hit, with Baramulla losing more than two-thirds of its population. Livestock losses were immense, and the quake triggered landslides that buried entire communities, altering the landscape and river flows for years to come1.
Floods have been a recurring threat in Kashmir, with the 2014 floods being the most severe in over a century. Beginning in early September, relentless monsoon rains led to the breaching of riverbanks, flash floods, and landslides. By September 6, 2014, the disaster was declared the worst in 50 years, with over 150 people dead and nearly 400 villages submerged. Srinagar, the summer capital, was inundated, and vast swathes of agricultural land were destroyed. The floods crippled infrastructure, cut off road connectivity, and left thousands homeless. The economic losses ran into billions of rupees, and the disaster highlighted the vulnerability of both urban and rural areas to extreme rainfall events and poor drainage systems2.
Flash floods and cloudbursts have become increasingly common in recent years, often linked to climate change. In 2022, the valley experienced its heaviest rainfall between May and July, resulting in a dozen flash floods that killed dozens, destroyed crops, and damaged infrastructure. In one tragic incident, 16 people lost their lives during a flash flood at an annual Hindu pilgrimage. Landslides and shooting stones frequently close the Kashmir highway, cutting off the valley from the rest of India and disrupting the movement of goods and people.
The Ongoing Water Crisis: Shrinking Glaciers and Precipitation Deficit
Kashmir, often described as the ‘Water Tower of India,’ is now grappling with a severe water crisis. Traditionally, its rivers and streams have been fed by winter snowfall and summer rains. However, the past five years have seen a persistent deficit in both, with 2024 recording only 870.9 mm of rainfall—29% below the normal average. Key glaciers such as Kolahoi, Machoi, and Harmukh are retreating rapidly due to reduced snowfall and rising temperatures. This has led to shrinking river flows, declining groundwater recharge, and increased risk of droughts and water shortages, especially during the critical summer months.
The Jhelum and Doodhganga rivers, lifelines for irrigation and drinking water, are experiencing lower flows. Farmers cultivating paddy, wheat, saffron and apples are struggling with water shortages, and the depletion of groundwater is compounding the crisis. The impact is not limited to agriculture; hydropower generation and drinking water supplies for urban centers are also under threat.
Dual Threat: Drought and Flash Floods
Kashmir’s farmers are now caught between the dual threats of drought-like conditions and sudden flash floods. In recent years, prolonged dry spells from March to June have been followed by intense rainfall, leading to flash floods that wipe out whatever crops survive the drought. For example, in 2022, the valley faced a severe drought in the early growing season, followed by flash floods that caused further devastation. Streamflows in the Jhelum river have dropped significantly, and the loss of glaciers is accelerating this decline. These weather extremes have led to crop failures, economic losses, and growing food insecurity in the region.
Farmers like Mohammad Subhan Dar and Mudasir Ahmad have faced repeated losses, prompting some to abandon traditional farming altogether. The government has encouraged alternate livelihoods, such as lavender cultivation, which requires less water and is more resilient to erratic weather. Lavender farming has provided a lifeline for some, but it cannot fully compensate for the decline in staple crops and the loss of traditional agricultural practices.
Ecological and Environmental Degradation
The environmental challenges in Kashmir extend beyond climate and water. Over the past century, the region’s average temperature has risen by 1.2°C—higher than the global average—leading to warmer winters and altered snowfall patterns. Deforestation, driven by urbanization and infrastructure development, has reduced forest cover to just over 10%. This loss of forests has increased soil erosion, caused more frequent floods, and threatened native plant and animal species.
Pollution of water bodies, especially Dal Lake, has become a major concern. Untreated sewage, agricultural runoff, and waste from tourism have degraded water quality, affecting fisheries, agriculture, and the health of local communities. Air pollution from stubble burning, brick kilns and open waste burning further compounds the region’s environmental woes.
Adaptation and Resilience: A Growing Imperative
Kashmir’s past disasters underscore the urgent need for comprehensive adaptation strategies. Farmers are experimenting with crop diversification, soil conservation and new irrigation techniques such as drip irrigation. Government and research institutions are promoting climate-resilient crops and rainwater harvesting. However, the scale of the challenge demands coordinated action across sectors—agriculture, water management, forestry and urban planning.
The valley’s history of earthquakes, floods, and now, climate-induced water crisis, is a stark reminder that the region’s natural beauty and productivity are deeply fragile. Without urgent and sustained adaptation, the risks to agriculture, water security and livelihoods will only intensify in the years ahead.
